I just reread your ‘what if Trump wins’ scenario and hope that it comes to pass with a lean towards the benign. I anticipate a bunch of American Orbán-type operatives to try to take advantage of the situation to rejig the game for future elections (by influencing the media, courts and electoral mechanisms. It will be interesting to see how vigorous the democratic immune system responds.
America's institutions--both political and cultural--are much stronger than Hungary's. As far as future elections, I think that's pretty hard to do too, since most election decisions are made at the state level, and state-level officials from both parties have mostly held the line. Personally, I think foreign policy and putting RFK in charge of public health (if Trump actually does that, which is far from clear he would) are the biggest wild cards/downside risks. The biggest upside risk is that Trump's administration, combined with an internal Democratic reckoning about the loss, finish cleaning out the identitarian far left movement's grip on power in academia, media and cultural institutions, and the Democratic party. But, again, the opposite happened during Trump's last term, so there is a big variance in possible outcomes.
What weight do you give to the idea that voters in the primaries tend to be more extreme which is why we end up with candidates that embrace more extreme positions? Harris is unique in this regard because she was able to avoid the primaries.
Ya, this can be a problem. But I think it is a much bigger problem on the right than on the left. E.g., there are many more Jamaal Bowmans, Cori Bush's, and other progressives who lose what should be easy primaries than there are equivalents on the right. I go through this a bit here: https://guidedcivicrevival.substack.com/p/how-polarization-will-destroy-itself
I just reread your ‘what if Trump wins’ scenario and hope that it comes to pass with a lean towards the benign. I anticipate a bunch of American Orbán-type operatives to try to take advantage of the situation to rejig the game for future elections (by influencing the media, courts and electoral mechanisms. It will be interesting to see how vigorous the democratic immune system responds.
America's institutions--both political and cultural--are much stronger than Hungary's. As far as future elections, I think that's pretty hard to do too, since most election decisions are made at the state level, and state-level officials from both parties have mostly held the line. Personally, I think foreign policy and putting RFK in charge of public health (if Trump actually does that, which is far from clear he would) are the biggest wild cards/downside risks. The biggest upside risk is that Trump's administration, combined with an internal Democratic reckoning about the loss, finish cleaning out the identitarian far left movement's grip on power in academia, media and cultural institutions, and the Democratic party. But, again, the opposite happened during Trump's last term, so there is a big variance in possible outcomes.
Thanks, appreciate your take on that.
What weight do you give to the idea that voters in the primaries tend to be more extreme which is why we end up with candidates that embrace more extreme positions? Harris is unique in this regard because she was able to avoid the primaries.
Ya, this can be a problem. But I think it is a much bigger problem on the right than on the left. E.g., there are many more Jamaal Bowmans, Cori Bush's, and other progressives who lose what should be easy primaries than there are equivalents on the right. I go through this a bit here: https://guidedcivicrevival.substack.com/p/how-polarization-will-destroy-itself